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This is not buying or investment advice. I’m simply reporting the data I’m seeing. Please do your own research and make your own decisions. Just because cards have increased in value up to this point, it doesn’t mean they will continue to do so.
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Market Movers isn’t perfect; no tool is. I’ve seen instances where a graded card was being included in the raw numbers, which might cause a huge spike in value. So trust, but verify.
Paul Skenes has taken the baseball card world by storm, just as Victor Wembanyama has done with basketball. In fact, 12 of the top 20 cards sold over the past week (by volume, and according to Market Movers) are Skenes’ rookies.
If you’re a rookie card collector navigating this whirlwind of a hobby, here’s what you need to know about how rookie cards stack up in terms of value and popularity.
Understanding the Rookie Card Landscape
Rookie cards come in a variety of formats, each with its own significance and value. I’m not here to debate what is a true rookie card, and won’t even be mentioning Bowman from here on out.
Instead, I’d just like to provide a rundown of the different types of rookie cards you’ll find in Topps flagship releases, using Skenes’ 2024 run as the example data set given the ROY has multiple cardboard options (with each bearing the iconic rookie card shield).
Flagship “Paper” Rookie
I know I said I’m not debating, and I’m not, I’m telling. A player’s true Topps rookie card is that of the flagship release and “paper” (not chrome variety.” It doesn’t mean it’s the most valuable.
Card Details: 2024 Topps Update Base Card (#US100)
Sales Volume: Sold 184 times in the last week
Average Price: $3.39
Notes: This is among the most common rookie card and widely available, making it an accessible option for new collectors.
Rookie Debut
When a better player has a rookie card in Topps Series 1 or Series 2, they typically also get a “Rookie Debut” card in Topps Update (see Jackson Holliday below). Because Skenes’ main rookie card was released in Update (and not S1 or S2) he also has a “Rookie Debut” in Update.
Card Details: 2024 Topps Update Rookie Debut (#US288)
Average Price: $2.81
Notes: Debut cards typically hold less value than flagship rookie cards, though they remain popular among collectors.
Topps Chrome Rookie
While Topps paper is the traditional “rookie card” a good chunk of the hobby recognized the Topps Chrome Rookie to be the one any serious rookie card collector should hold. Featuring the same photo and design as the paper rookie, the Topps Chrome version is on thicker stock with a chromium finish.
Card Details: Chrome Update (#USC88)
Sales Volume: 163 sales in the last week
Average Price: $7.41
Notes: Chrome cards are generally more sought after due to their glossy finish and perceived premium quality.
Chrome Debut Card
And just like Topps “paper” has a “Rookie Debut” so does Topps Chrome, which is inserted into the Topps Chrome Update checklist/release.
Card Details: 2024 Topps Chrome Debut
Average Price: $4.00
Notes: This card sits between the flagship rookie and debut cards in terms of value.
So to put it all together, of these 4 cards, Topps Chrome usually sits at the top of the value list, followed by Topps Chrome Update “Rookie Debut.” Topps “paper” flagship usually trails behind both Chrome cards, with Topps “paper” “Rookie Debut” at the bottom.
Comparing Skenes to Other Players
Jackson Holliday’s rookie cards offer an interesting comparison (note, though, that the main difference with Holliday’s cards is that Holliday has both a Topps Chrome RC and a Topps Chrome Update RC (and Topps Chrome Update Rookie Debut).
Over the last seven days, Holliday’s Topps Paper Rookie Debut card averaged $2.00, his Topps Update Base Rookie card averaged $2.11, and his Topps Chrome Update Rookie card averaged $2.21. As a potential twist, his Chrome Update Rookie Debut card came in slightly higher at $2.49. BUT, again, Holliday had a true Topps Chrome RC before Chrome update, which tops his the list with a 7-day average of $2.67.
Inserts and More
Beyond the core rookie cards, insert cards also draw attention. I won’t get into them right now, but for instance, the Chrome anniversary card each year (1989 for 2024) usually does the best.
In terms of “truer” insert cards, Chrome Future Stars is typically one of the better inserts and then something like Stars of the MLB. From there, each release has something new and different, which is where Skenes’ Mystical is averaging $5.00 and Let Him Cook not doing too bad either.
What This Means for Collectors
For those looking to start or expand a Skenes collection, the flagship and Chrome rookie cards are excellent options, providing accessibility and value. Inserts like Mystical or anniversary editions can be a fun addition for collectors seeking variety.
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